TUCSON, AZ (CBS5) -
Voters are heading to the polls Tuesday to decide who will get the seat in District 8 for the remainder of Gabrielle Giffords' term.
The six months in office may not be a long term, but the race has already captured national attention for what it may mean for Arizona in November.
Ron Barber waited until the end of his campaign to appear at a rally with Giffords. He previously worked in her office. The two were wounded together in the mass shooting that forced Giffords out of Congress and it has been widely known for some time now that he has her support.
"Just because she endorses somebody, I think there's an assumption that a whole bunch of people are going to vote a certain way for Ron Barber just because she's endorsed him... that's not necessarily true," political analyst Bruce Merrill said.
Merrill points out Giffords won by only 2 percent in her last race against Republican Jesse Kelly, who is running in this election.
Merrill said in a special election, turnout is historically low.
"In low turnout elections, the more conservative ideologues and older people who tend to be more Republican tend to have a slight advantage in terms of turnout," Merrill said.
A Republican win would allow Mitt Romney to use this race as a perceived rejection of President Barack Obama's policies and a bad loss by Barber could force Democrats to quickly shuffle the deck.
"I think it would be a real setback if he would lose and I think at that point, the Democrats may want to look around and see if there is a stronger candidate out there," Merrill said.
Primary voting for November's election is just 60 days away.
"I think it is probably likely that however this comes out, it will probably be between the same two candidates in November. We're running out of time," Merrill said.
A new poll Monday shows that Giffords' appearance with Barber this weekend definitely didn't hurt. The public policy poll shows Barber leading Kelly, 53 percent to 41 percent.
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Democratic candidate Ron Barber
Republican candidate Jesse Kelly
Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis
