We've got winter weather on the way tonight and tomorrow morning…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for tonight and tomorrow morning for all of Connecticut except the immediate Shoreline.
In the meantime, all will be quiet. As cloudiness increases today, cold air will remain entrenched. Highs will struggle for the low and mid 30s, with many spots likely not seeing highs beyond the upper-20s. All day Sunday, we will be free from wintry precipitation and so we do not anticipate any trouble traveling Sunday; therefore, you should feel free to go to parties, bazaars, shopping and/or the myriad of other things that might take you from home. After dark, the air will cool into the upper-20s as clouds continue to thicken through midnight.
From 9 PM Sunday until approximately 9 AM Monday, we will likely have a wintry mix arriving from the southwest. Developing around the New Haven, Bridgeport, Waterbury areas first, snow and/or sleet will likely develop and then move northeast, overtaking the entire state by around midnight. We anticipate mainly light and moderate sleet or snow at the onset before a transition to more of a sleet/freezing rain precipitation occurs only 1-3 hours later. By the time most of us are awake and beginning our Monday rituals between 6 and 8 AM, temperatures will be going above 32°F everywhere, changing the icing over to sprinkles and mist. Roads will still be slippery and/or slushy in many places, slowing us down.
So how much snow and ice are we expecting? Right now (reserving the guilt-free right to amend since it's still early), it looks like much of the state will receive a slushy coating up to 1". North and northwest or Hartford along the Massachusetts border may receive more, perhaps 2"+/-. I am hesitant to call for more right now because I see what the national weather service also has seen in the forecast soundings: meager moisture at altitudes where the temperature is premium for snow crystals to grow. So, any snowy period would be light and brief and may even be mixed with mist before the quick change to glazing. We'll see…brass tax: the main problem with this storm is its timing during morning rush hour, not impressive snow output. It simply has the potential to be a nuisance for a lot of us.
By Monday afternoon, all we'll be getting from the sky is plain rain and it appears we'll be missing the bulk of it the jet stream's maximum wind takes the bulk of rain off shore to our south. We should have at least occasional showers and drizzle through sunset with highs in the 30s inland, 40s closer to the Shoreline.
Tuesday will be colder, starting off with dry. Temperatures will stay in the 30s to – perhaps 40°. The jet stream will remain just to our south and does bear watching: one of our models is suggesting another "impulse" will be available to give another batch of wintry precipitation Tuesday. And, if this scenario were to unfold, it would be a light to moderate snowfall favoring the Shoreline for higher accumulations. Another trusted model keeps that energy to the south and more aggressively sends an Arctic front our way with scattered snow showers. Either way, we have to include at least a remote chance for snow in the forecast for Tuesday.
Arctic air settles into the state Wednesday and Thursday with a couple of cold days with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s and low-30s. We anticipate some moderation to the air Friday as the core of the cold air shifts east. Cloudy, milder weather is in the forecast for Saturday as a clipper moves across northern New England, sparing us its precipitation while giving us the benefit of its wind pattern along its southern periphery.
So there it is…a few changes for wintry weather in "bite-sized pieces." Stay safe and enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron